MURRAY CAMPBELL

February 5, 2008

TORONTO -- It may be snowy and cold outside but Brad Harness looks around and sees nothing but low-hanging fruit in John Tory's backyard.

Mr. Harness is the Leader of the Reform Party of Ontario, a newly reconstituted party whose members felt abandoned when federal Reformers threw their lot in with Conservatives a few years ago.

They licked their wounds for a while but revived the party in Ontario in time to run two candidates in last fall's provincial campaign.

The party has nowhere to go but up - it got just 354 votes in October.

But Mr. Harness believes there are lots of people who would be attracted to the message of fiscal prudence that Preston Manning used to deliver.

He thinks lots of them are in the Progressive Conservative Party and can be shaken loose if Mr. Tory remains as leader after this month's convention.

That's why Reform members will be on the sidewalks in front of the London convention centre handing out party literature, including membership application forms.

Moreover, some Reform members who still hold Conservative credentials will be working the room inside.

"Whatever fruit the tree bears, we'll go with that," said Mr. Harness, a weekly newspaper publisher in Strathroy.

The Reform overture is a complicating wrinkle in the scenario about the future of Mr. Tory and his party.

It indicates that he could be successful in retaining his job but could also watch as the party begins to crumble.

He has to win the support of just 50 per cent plus one of the delegates at the Feb. 23 leadership review vote.

His critics are saying that he needs at least 80 per cent to retain the confidence of the party and that anything significantly less will cripple his leadership by creating factions within the party.

At least, that's what people are saying in the blogosphere where unattributed opinions are commonplace.

"Even if Tory wins the review vote, there will be a large number of defections from the party, probably to the Reform Party of Ontario, who will be eagerly awaiting their arrival," writes "Ontario Blue," a blogger who identifies himself as "just your average grassroots political junky with conservative principles and an attitude."

No one knows whether this will happen. The meetings to select delegates to the London convention ended on Friday but even party president Blair McCreadie won't know for a few days whether all 107 ridings took the opportunity to send 21 delegates to London.

No one knows whether they will all have the money to pay for travel and hotel expenses.

The foot soldiers in the Dump Tory army believe the Conservative Party is making it difficult for ordinary people to get to the convention.

For example, a delay in posting the convention itinerary is seen to be an attempt to befuddle delegates who couldn't afford a hotel room for all three days of the convention. Perception is reality in the increasingly bitter battle over the party's future.

Publicly, Mr. Tory is sticking with his view that he will abide by the party's constitution and accept 50 plus one as a victory.

But those who know the leader say the number of delegates supporting him is less important than the quality of the support.

For example, all 26 Conservative MPPs are standing behind their leader but there is a widespread belief in the party that some of this support is lukewarm and would evaporate when the warm winds of personal ambition began to blow.

Mr. Tory, who has lots of other things he could do with his life, might also be swayed if he heard enough voices like blogger "Christian Conservative" who pleaded: "Do us all a favour, please step down." He could win but still lose.

Complete story at the Globe and Mail.(subscribers only)