Numbers Matter or an Honest Comparison between Tory, Harris, Harper, and McGuinty
Written by Brendan McLaughlin   

Many supporters of the No side are saying that Mike Harris, Dalton McGuinty, and Stephen Harper all got second chances to fight a general election as leader, so John Tory should too. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending or your point of view, Tory's results are not comparable to any of the three aforementioned leaders.

Tory had more than ample prep time for the recent election - he was leader for over three years before election day. Conversely, Mike Harris and Stephen Harper were only leaders for 117 days and 100 days respectively before the election. Both of these leaders still managed to improve more than Tory however. Dalton McGuinty's prep time was closer to Tory's, although still a few months less, but he managed to raise his party's pop. vote by 9% over 1995 and the percentage of seats in legislature by 10% in an election no one expected the Liberals to win.

Simply put - Tory had the longest prep time and the worst results.

Numbers matter and the charts below show that our leadership matters too.

We need a leader who can get results.

Many supporters of the No side are saying that Mike Harris, Dalton McGuinty, and Stephen Harper all got second chances to fight a general election as leader, so John Tory should too. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending or your point of view, Tory's results are not comparable to any of the three aforementioned leaders.

Tory had more than ample prep time for the recent election - he was leader for over three years before election day. Conversely, Mike Harris and Stephen Harper were only leaders for 117 days and 100 days respectively before the election. Both of these leaders still managed to improve more than Tory however. Dalton McGuinty's prep time was closer to Tory's, although still a few months less, but he managed to raise his party's pop. vote by 9% over 1995 and the percentage of seats in legislature by 10% in an election no one expected the Liberals to win.

Simply put - Tory had the longest prep time and the worst results.

Numbers matter and the charts below show that our leadership matters too.

We need a leader who can get results.

% of Seats in Legislature

Leader Seats Held on First Day as Leader Seats Held after First Election as Leader Change in Seats
John Tory 24 / 103 = 23.30% 26 / 107 = 24.30% 1.00%
Mike Harris 17 / 130 = 13.08% 20 / 130 = 15.38% 2.31%
Stephen Harper 72 / 301 = 23.92% 99 / 308 = 32.14% 8.22%
Dalton McGuinty 31 / 130 = 23.85% 35 / 103 = 33.98% 10.13%

Change in % of Seats From Becoming Leader to First Election as Leader

Time as Leader Before General Election

Leader Became Leader General Election Days as Leader before General Election
Stephen Harper March 20, 2004 June 28, 2004 100
Mike Harris May 12, 1990 September 6, 1990 117
Dalton McGuinty December 1, 1996 June 3, 1999 914
John Tory September 18, 2004 October 10, 2007 1117

Number of Days as Leader

Popular Vote of Party

Leader Last Election Before Leader First Election As Leader Change
John Tory 34.60% 31.64% -2.96%
Mike Harris 24.70% 23.50% -1.20%
Dalton McGuinty 31.10% 39.90% +8.80%

* Stephen Harper is not listed as the Conservative Party first election was with Stephen Harper as leader.

 

Change in Pop. Vote of Party from Previous Election to First Election as Leader

 
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